Building mechanistic and process based species distribution models for common tansy and leafy spurge: from landscapes to genomes
David Moeller, Plant and Microbial Biology
Computer-generated models make it possible for researchers to predict where invasive species are most likely to spread under future climate conditions. Machine learning techniques coupled with field survey data produce reliable maps that managers can use in early detection efforts. MITPPC scientists have already created predictive model maps of 9 invasive weed species on Minnesota’s Noxious Weed List to make early detection easier and improve the State’s eradication efforts.
A new phase of the project will now aim to improve the model for more fine-scale prediction of the invasive species common tansy and leafy spurge. Researchers will take an innovative approach to species surveying across the Minnesota landscape by using techniques like remote sensing and hyperspectral satellite imaging.
What is the current and future distribution of common tansy and leafy spurge?
How will changes in temperature and moisture affect the growth and reproduction of common tansy and leafy spurge?
How do populations of common tansy and leafy spurge differ across the state and how have both species been spreading?
Maps that describe the future distribution of common tansy and leafy spurge will have direct value to managers and decision makers as they create plans for control and eradication throughout Minnesota. Common tansy and leafy spurge are noxious weeds in Minnesota and must be controlled to prevent the maturation and spread of propogating parts.
UMN Supercomputing Institute, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
David Moeller, primary investigator
Ryan Briscoe Runquist, post-doctoral associate
Thomas Lake, Ph.D. candidate
News & Publications
- "Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges" (Nature Scientific Reports, 2019)
- "Climate change and forest herbs of temperate deciduous forests" The Herbaceous Layer in Forests of Eastern North America (Oxford University Press)