Developing a spatially explicit bio-economic dispersal model to aid with the management of brown marmorated stink bug
Senait Senay, Plant Pathology, Applied Economics
The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) is a serious invasive pest of corn, soybean, apple, grape, and other crops and ornamentals, and a nuisance in homes across the U.S. The insect was first spotted in Minnesota in 2010, and there is now evidence it could establish more permanently in the state. To understand how BMSB might be managed in the future, leaders in the field need a clearer picture of where the insect is likely to spread and what resources could be at risk.
Researchers will use a technique called agent based modeling to create a computer simulation of BMSB movement across the state. The simulation’s outcome depends on interrelated factors like temperature, level of management, insect biology and many others. A wealth of data points collected from more than 1,500 previously published studies will be included. Another MITPPC-funded project is currently generating BMSB life cycle data that will be used to make the model Minnesota-specific.
Researchers on this project will also explore which of our state’s urban and rural resources are at greatest economic risk in a BMSB infestation. Ultimately, the team will bring economic and insect dispersal data together into one powerful simulation tool capable of evaluating the outcomes and trade-offs of different management scenarios.
Where in Minnesota is BMSB predicted to be in the next 30 years?
What urban and rural resources are placed at risk in BMSB infestation, and what levels of economic damages could be expected?
What management scenarios predict the best outcomes in a bio-economic dispersal model?
The BMSB simulation model will provide State of Minnesota leaders with valuable information about pest movement patterns and management scenario outcomes. This tool can also be customized and expanded to visualize other invasive species threats in the future.
G.E.M.S., Minnesota Supercomputing Institute, Minnesota Department of Agriculture, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, U.S. Geological Survey, Landcare Research Institute (New Zealand), CABI
Senait Senay, principal investigator
Terrance Hurley, co-principal investigator
Bryan Runck, post-doctoral candidate
Yuan Chai, post-doctoral candidate
Rafael Carlesso Aita, Masters student
News & Publications
- A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogenous environments (Ecology and Evolution, 2017)
- The potential global distribution of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, a critical threat to plant biosecurity (Journal of Pest Science, 2017)
- G.E.M.S. Project Website