Incorporating adaptation into forecasts of range shifts with climate change

researcher cutting common tansy heads in a field under a climate control cover

Common tansy climate experiment, St. Paul, MN

 

Background

Common tansy (Tanacetum vulgare) is an invasive herbaceous perennial plant that is a significant threat across the Upper Midwest and northeastern states. It interrupts native plant communities and requires overlapping management strategies to control it. 

In Minnesota, common tansy has recently dramatically increased in abundance. The densest populations are found in the cooler and wetter northeastern region. Current species distribution models (SDMs) suggest that common tansy is not likely to invade the warmer and drier regions of western and southern Minnesota, and the populations will recede north with climate change. Nevertheless, land managers have recently observed westward and southward range expansion.

These observations suggest that the traditional SDMs might have failed to account for potential evolutionary adaptations in the plants that would allow them to expand their range. This research team seeks to test if adaptation has fueled increases in abundance and range expansion of common tansy, which may be applicable in principle to other terrestrial invasive plants.

Research questions

  • Has adaptive differentiation in common tansy already occurred in Minnesota? What are the traits?
  • What is the spatial scale of local adaptation?
  • What is the influence of adaptive differentiation on choice and timing of management approaches?

Outcomes

This research team discovered that common tansy has evolved during invasion. While certain populations display site-specific local adaptation, others act as "general-purpose genotypes" that thrive across diverse environments. These populations appear pre-adapted to climate change, showing strong resilience to elevated temperatures and drought.

SDMs informed by field performance revealed peak reproductive fitness in southern Minnesota, driven by early relative growth and accelerated flowering that extended the time span of seed production. These findings show that climate is likely not currently range-limiting for common tansy in Minnesota and signals a high potential for continued expansion. 

The team profiled secondary defense chemicals (called terpenes) that revealed substantial variation driven by both genotype and environment, which directly influenced herbivory. This is a key consideration for future biological control efforts.

These results highlight the critical need to disrupt invasion pathways, eradicate range-margin populations early, and aggressively manage established core populations. Common tansy is well-positioned to thrive and expand, with population strongholds likely expanding along current southern and western range margins.
 

Publications

Outreach

  • Communication with local and state supporters and stakeholders at DNR and MDA
  • Communication with noxious weed coordinators
  • Communication with CABI about common tansy biocontrol
  • Communication  with USDA and UMN to coordinate current and future common tansy genomics projects
  • Collaborations with Research and Outreach stations at St. Paul Experimental Station, SWROC, Cloquet Forestry Center, and Minnesota State University, Moorhead Regional Science Center
  • “Improving predictions of biological invasions with multidisciplinary approaches,” dissertation defense by Thomas Lake, 2023
  • CFANS Research Symposium, 2025
  • MINnesota Climate and Local adaptation of Invasive and Native species Experiment quarterly update newsletter

News and media

Research team

Ryan Briscoe Runquist | principal investigator

David Moeller | co-principal investigator

Emma Boehm | postdoctoral associate

Zachary Schmitz | undergraduate

Allison Yu | undergraduate

Jack Hartman | undergraduate

Charley Norcross | undergraduate

Grant Johnson | undergraduate

 

Lab or other website

Moeller Lab

Sign up for the team's quarterly email: 
Common Tansy Experimental Updates

 

Collaborating organizations

Clay County, Soil & Water Conservation District

Becker County, Soil & Water Conservation District

Minnesota Department of Agriculture

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Minnesota Department of Transportation

Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station

Minnesota Board of Water and Soil Resources

St. Paul Experimental Station

Southwest Research and Outreach Center

Cloquet Forestry Center in collaboration with the Fond Du Lac Band

Minnesota State University, Moorehead, Science and Outreach Center

USDA Agricultural Research Service

The Nature Conservancy