Common tansy in bloom. Credit: Domini Brown
Background
Land managers often use species distribution models (SDM) to make decisions about how to prioritize limited resources when managing invasive species. However, these models may fail because they do not incorporate information on adaptation as species expand their range.
Building on previous MITPPC-funded research, this project will leverage a multi-year reciprocal transplant study of common tansy and simulation studies to validate a new class of genomically-informed SDMs (gSDM) for common tansy and round leaf bittersweet (both on Minnesota’s prohibited-control noxious weeds list). gSDMs are a promising new method that incorporates genomic data into distribution predictions and could potentially describe how invasive species will perform in novel environments. Although this is an exciting new tool, we need to better understand the best practices for deploying these types of models in order to provide more accurate predictions to decision makers.
They’ll use this knowledge to build gSDMs for round leaf bittersweet. We will then use simulation studies to develop a set of guidelines to describe when, where and how gSDMs generate the most reliable and accurate prediction of invasion risk.
Research questions
- Does the incorporation of genome-environment associations improve predictions of invasion under current and future climates?
- Does invasion history influence whether gSDMs make accurate predictions of range expansion?
- What is the extent to which gSDMs can predict adaptation in real-world settings?
- What guidelines help describe when, where, and how gSDMs generate the most reliable and accurate prediction of invasion risk?
Practical implications
Accurate predictions of invasive species distributions are vital for allocating scarce management resources for monitoring and management. This work will provide a general framework for the use of genetic-environment association tools in invasive species modeling. In addition, researchers will develop predictions for common tansy and round leaf bittersweet. This information will help direct current management efforts for agencies.
Findings
This project began in January 2026 and is in progress for the next several years. Please check back at a later time for updates.
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